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Donald Trump’s approval ratings as president are in the toilet. Since the inauguration, now more than three weeks ago, the balance of approval/disapproval percentages has shifted from 45/45 to 40/54. These are historically dismal levels of support for a new president. By contrast, Barack Obama hovered around 65/22 for the first month of his presidency.

As some have pointed out, it might be a mistake to read too much into these numbers. The structural divisions within the nation remain unchanged. Disappointed and angry liberals enthusiastically “resisting” the Trump regime would do well to recall they thought they had it in the bag with Hillary Clinton. The question isn’t whether they underestimate Trump, but whether they underestimate his base.

One notable divergence in the approval ratings is that the negative views have increased (by 9 percentage points) far more than the positives have decreased (by 5 points). Trump’s base probably solidifies at about 40 percent. It is not a trivial number of people – 40 percent of the national population is about 130 million folks who think Trump is just dandy. And in the “red” and “purple” states that handed Trump the election, those approval numbers are likely far higher.

Diversity proponents (of which I am one) emphasize demographic trends that imply a weakening of the forces that support Trumpism – race and education (and, to a lesser extent, gender). And it is true that the percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the United States is expected to drop well below 50 percent in the next three decades. If a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites gain college degrees in this timeframe, we might expect the pool of potential white nationalist voters to shrink, perhaps absolutely, but certainly relative to the growth of other demographic groups in the United States.

Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote for Trump (FiveThirtyEight)

Clinton’s Ground Game Didn’t Cost Her The Election (FiveThirtyEight)


A Spike in Overdose Emergency Calls Is Seen in Kentucky (New York Times)

‘I’m Still All Trumped Up’ (Politico)

And Then the Breitbart Lynch Mob Came For Me (Bill Moyers)

Every Racist I Know Voted for Donald Trump’ (The Atlantic)

Red state TV: Networks are reportedly seeking pilots appealing to Trump voters (Salon)

So far, the resistance hasn’t reached Trump Land — and that needs to change (Salon)

Will Trump’s Approval Rating Be A Problem For Republicans In 2018? (FiveThirtyEight)

Trump Can’t Make Worthington, Minnesota, White Again (Bloomberg)

Democratic Party Sugar High (NY Times)