Doug Jones takes lead on Roy Moore in new Senate poll (Real-Time News from AL.com)

Doug Jones takes lead on Roy Moore in new Senate poll

http://bit.ly/2zz52ND

A new Alabama Senate poll, released Sunday morning, gives Democrat Doug Jones his first lead over Republican Roy Moore.

The race, though, remains close.

Louisiana-based JMC Analytics conducted the poll after allegations of sexual misconduct by Moore were reported by The Washington Post.

The poll had Jones received 46 percent support in the poll to Moore’s 42 percent. With a margin of error of 4 percent, however, the race is essentially a statistical tie.

The poll also had 9 percent of participants declaring themselves undecided.

The election is Dec. 12 — one month from today.

It’s the second poll since the allegations came out that reveals a loss of support for Moore. A Decision Desk HQ/Opinion Savvy poll released Friday had the race tied 46-46.

Meanwhile, three other polls conducted after The Post allegations had Moore with slight leads but all acknowledged that his chance of winning was dwindling.

Moore maintained a lead in a poll conducted by Change Research after The Post allegations were published Thursday. Moore had a 4-point lead (44-40) but the Change poll also found that Moore’s support was waning and that his lead was largely a testament to the dominance of the GOP in Alabama.

The Change poll of 1,855 registered voters also said that 42.4 percent of participants did not believe the allegations against Moore while 31.2 percent said they did believe them and 26.4 percent said they were unsure.

Still another poll, conducted by CB Polling, gave Moore a 3-point lead (51.5-48.5). With a margin of error of 4.2 percent, CB headlined its poll findings by declaring the Senate race “a toss-up” at this point. That poll sampled 534 likely voters.

And still another poll, sampling 478 likely voters and conducted by Florida-based Gravis Marketing, had Moore with a 2-point lead (48-46). Gravis managing partner Doug Kaplan said that The Post allegations “have been a heavy blow to Moore.” In tweeting the poll results Sunday, Gravis said it “would not be surprised if (Moore) lost.”

A poll released Saturday exclusively to Breitbart News, whose president is Stephen Bannon – the former White House adviser who has endorsed Moore, campaigned on his behalf and spoke in his defense following the allegations reported by The Washington Post – gave Moore an 11-point lead.

The poll was conducted by WT&S Consulting in Athens. The firm’s chief political officer, John Wahl, was the pollster. Wahl formerly worked for previous Moore campaigns and is vice chair of the Republican Party in the 5th¬†Congressional District.

Moore posted the Breitbart story on the poll on his Senate Facebook page on Sunday morning.

The JMC poll had a sample pool of 575 participants in a landline automated phone survey of likely Senate voters.

A JMC poll conducted in early October had Moore with an 8-point lead.

While the race has flipped in Jones favor, according to the poll, it found that the allegations against Moore were not the only factors in his support appearing to diminish.

While 38 percent of poll participants said they were “less likely” to vote for Moore in the aftermath of the allegations, 29 percent said it made them “more likely” to vote for him and 33 percent said it made “no difference.”

In a summary of poll findings, JMC said there were three reasons why Moore has lost his lead over the past six weeks:

  • His support has dropped 16 percent with men and 6 percent with women.
  • Moore’s support across the board has dropped, including evangelicals, while non-evangelicals have given more support to Jones as well as undecided voters have leaned toward Jones.
  • The political climate for Republicans in Alabama has become less favorable.

“In summary, Roy Moore has in the last month seen the race move against him,” the JMC summary said in conclusion. “While the general election is still a month away, he needs to reassemble the Republican base and recognize that in the aftermath of the November 7 national elections, there is tangible evidence that Democrats are clearly more energized, and that benefits Jones.”

Updated today, Nov. 12, 2017, at 10:51 a.m. with information on other new polls.

JMC Analytics Alabama Senate poll by pgattis7719 on Scribd

Alabama

via Real-Time News from AL.com http://bit.ly/2zzWl2c

November 12, 2017 at 08:33AM